Are We Identifying Potential — or Creating It?

Growth is something every leader cares about. We look at people, teams, and programs and try to answer a simple question: where should we invest?

Sometimes the answer feels obvious. Certain individuals stand out. They perform well, communicate confidently, and seem to have the qualities we associate with future success. We label them as “high potential” and begin to invest — giving them more opportunities, more visibility, and more support.

It feels like a rational decision.

But development rarely follows a predictable path.

The people we expect to grow don’t always do. And sometimes, those who initially go unnoticed develop in unexpected ways. Over time, it becomes harder to ignore the possibility that something else is happening beneath the surface.

This is where the paradox begins.

Identifying potential

Most organizations operate on the assumption that potential is something you can identify early. Leaders are expected to recognize talent, make decisions about who to invest in, and allocate resources accordingly.

This approach makes sense. Resources are limited, and not every individual can receive the same level of attention or opportunity. Identifying potential allows organizations to focus their efforts where they believe the return will be highest.

But this assumption carries a hidden risk.

When we identify someone as high potential, we don’t just observe them — we begin to shape their environment. They are given more challenging projects, more exposure, and more feedback. Over time, these advantages accumulate.

Their growth accelerates.

Creating potential

At the same time, those who are not identified early often receive fewer opportunities. They may have less access to challenging work, less visibility, and fewer chances to demonstrate their capabilities.

Not because they lack potential, but because they were not initially selected.

This raises an uncomfortable question:

Are we discovering potential… or creating it?

Because the moment we decide who to invest in, we begin to influence the outcome. Development is not just a reflection of individual ability — it is shaped by the environment, the opportunities provided, and the expectations placed on someone.

In that sense, potential is not only something people have. It is something that can be developed — or constrained.

The hidden feedback loop

Over time, this creates a feedback loop.

Those who are identified early receive more opportunities and develop faster. Their progress reinforces the belief that they were the right choice. Meanwhile, others receive fewer opportunities, develop more slowly, and appear to confirm the initial decision.

What started as an assumption becomes a self-fulfilling outcome.

This doesn’t mean that identifying potential is always wrong. Some individuals do stand out for a reason. But it does mean that our decisions are not neutral. They shape the very outcomes we later use to justify them.

The real challenge

For leaders, this creates a difficult situation.

Not investing in people carries the risk of overlooking talent that could have developed. But investing heavily in a select group carries the risk of narrowing the field too early.

There is no perfect solution.

The challenge is not to eliminate this tension, but to become aware of it. To recognize that potential is not a fixed trait, and that our systems, decisions, and behaviors play a role in shaping who develops and who does not.

It requires asking different questions.

What evidence supports our assessment of potential?
Are we evaluating growth over time, or relying on first impressions?
Who are we not investing in — and why?

A different perspective

Instead of treating potential as something to be identified once, it may be more useful to see it as something that evolves.

A dynamic process rather than a fixed label.

This does not remove the need to make decisions. Leaders still have to choose where to invest their time and resources. But it shifts the mindset from selecting a few individuals to continuously creating conditions where more people can develop.

The real question

We often believe we are making objective decisions about talent and development.

But how much of that is shaped by who we notice, who we invest in, and what we reward?

Are we identifying potential…
or are we playing a bigger role in creating it than we realize?